Special Report: We Can Help You Navigate a Tough Market
Military conflict is looming. The Fed's about to taper Quantitative Easing. The Debt Ceiling hangs like the Sword of Damocles over our heads. Is the market going to get easier to navigate in the weeks, months and years to come? We think not.
WE CAN HELP.
WHAT HAVE WE DONE FOR YOU LATELY?
We live in a "what have you done for me lately" world. So, let us share what we have done for you during 2013, if you have been a subscriber to The Agile Trader.
On January 2, 2013 (Point A, way over on the left side of the chart below) we issued a bullish market forecast and called for the S&P 500 (SPX) to rally to the 1525-1550 range.
By mid-March the index had rallied to 1563, just 13 points above the top of our target range. (Close enough for government work.) At that point (B), we issued a forecast for the market to flatten out or pull back. And the market did flatten out for about a month, as we had expected.
At point C on May 9 we issued a bullish call with a target of SPX 1700 and a test of the long-term trendline overhead. We got that test in short order at point D on May 21 (with a high of 1687, just 13 points from our target). At that point we turned bearish and projected a pullback of about 100 SPX points. We got that and a little bit more as the market declined into late June.
At E, on June 24, we turned bullish again and projected a rally through the first half of July…which occurred. And then at point F on August 7 we turned bearish and began to expect a pullback into the 1650s, with a possible re-test of 1576 to come. We’re now in the middle of that market swing, as expected.
So, what have we done for “you” lately, if you’re a subscriber to The Agile Trader? We’ve nailed the major swings in the stock market throughout 2013…so far.
Military conflict is looming. The Fed's about to taper Quantitative Easing. The Debt Ceiling hangs like the Sword of Damocles over our heads. Is the market going to get easier to navigate in the weeks, months and years to come? We think not.
WE CAN HELP.
WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO FOR YOU NEXT?
In our next email to you, we will explore the subject of whether or not we have entered a new secular bull market for stocks. Stay tuned, because this subject may determine your financial future for the next 15 to 20 years!
If you’d like a free 2-week trial to The Agile Trader, CLICK HERE.
For more information CLICK HERE.
(Below we've cut and pasted the charts and explanations described above from our daily Morning Callnewsletter. Please scroll down to go through them one by one, at your convenience.)
1/02/13 (Bullish Call for a rally to 1525-50.)
This morning S&P futures are gapping up about 25 points. This on the heels of Friday’s afternoon rally into year-end.
Between Thursday’s close and the pre-market trade this morning, we’re up from the 1380s into the 1440s on the March e-mini futures contract. We’ve broken back above the line of declining tops launched in September, and we’re testing some short-term resistance near 1450. Our suspicion is that we’ll be moving over 1500 into the 1525-1550 range on the SPX. But, that said, if we can’t pierce the September highs it he 1460s, then we’ll have to reconsider.
3/18/13 (Neutral call with bearish risks.)
As we have discussed at length, when trend persistence gets as high as it has been lately, there tends to be not much more upside in the market, and the potential for explosive movement tends to be to the downside.
We measure trend persistence here by the number of closes above the 10-dma out of the last 44 closes. And when we get up around 40, the SPX, more often than not, tends to flatten out, and then pull back.
Of course, there have been times when the market has broken out to the upside from a very overbought condition such as the one we’re in now. (e.g., 1980 and 1994-95). But those are the exceptions rather than the rule.
5/9/13 (Bullish call: the path to 1700 is clear.)
The SPX continues to rally above the trend zone defined by the red channel lines, and looks like it’s headed for the upper limit of the trend zone defined by the grey channel lines.
5/21/13—Bearish Call
We think that the SPX is overripe for a pullback now as the index bumps its head on an important multi-year supply line (black oblique line on the chart below) that was launched in 2010.
The index has rallied almost 100 points since it broke out over 1576 (almost 130 points if you start counting at the April low). And sentiment has become quite bullish, as evidenced by the CBOE Equity Put/Call 5-dma (blue line on the chart below).
As you can see, the blue line has fallen to its lowest level since March of 2012, when the SPX began a topping formation from which it gave up more than 100 points.
6/24/2013—Bullish Call
The SPX touched 1577.70 as a low for the day on Friday, very close to the 1560-1576 band of support we have been watching for.
We think that the SPX is likely to form a local low in the next day or 2, and that we should see a snapback rally of some size within the downtrend zone delineated in blue on the chart above….we should see some seasonal strength begin and carry through the July 4 holiday, with a half-life that carries that snapback toward the middle of next month.
8/7/2013—“A Spark of Fear?” (Looking for downside targets.)
The SPX is pulling back from an all-time high last week. The one-way move from the June low has lost momentum but has not reversed itself (yet?).
If we start breaking support levels, then we should see at least a Fibonacci 38% retracement of the June-August rally and a test of the 1650s.
Once again:
What have we done for “you” lately? If you’re a subscriber to The Agile Trader, We’ve nailed the major swings in the stock market throughout 2013.
Military conflict is looming. The Fed's about to taper Quantitative Easing. The Debt Ceiling hangs like the Sword of Damocles over our heads. Is the market going to get easier to navigate in the weeks, months and years to come? We think not.
WE CAN HELP.
If you’d like a free 2-week trial to The Agile Trader, CLICK HERE. For more information CLICK HERE.
If you have any questions, please feel free to contact us at theagiletrader@gmail.com
Best regards and good trading!
The Editorial Staff
The Agile Trader